Latino America: How America’s Most Dynamic Population is Poised to Transform the Politics of the Nation
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When that happens, America’s two most populous states, carrying the largest number of Electoral College votes, will be Latino. New Mexico is already there. New York, Florida, Arizona, and Nevada are shifting rapidly. Latino populations since 2000 have doubled in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, and South Dakota. The US is undergoing a substantial and irreversible shift in its identity.
So, too, are the Latinos who make up these populations. Matt Barreto and Gary M. Segura are the country’s preeminent experts in the shape, disposition, and mood of Latino America. They show the extent to which Latinos have already transformed the US politically and socially, and how Latino Americans are the most buoyant and dynamic ethnic and racial group, often in quite counterintuitive ways. Latinos’ optimism, strength of family, belief in the constructive role of government, and resilience have the imminent potential to reshape the political and partisan landscape for a generation and drive the outcome of elections as soon as 2016.
and, 44–45 socioeconomic status, 57–59 turnout probability, 58 fig. 4.2 voter participation, 13–14 Voto Latino, 54 Wals, Sergio, 25 Warner, Mark, 196 Washington, Harold, 83 Waters, Maxine, 83 Webb, Wellington, 83 Websites, political analysis, 113 White identification, historical trends in, 2 table 1.1 Whites, non-Hispanic abortion rights, views on, 50 educational attainment of, 40 environmental attitudes of, 219–220 gay and lesbian rights, views on, 49 government, views on role
matter,” but instead, the state played a pivotal role in keeping Hillary Clinton’s campaign alive when she narrowly won. One-third of the electorate was Latino.6 THE POLITICAL CONTEXT OF PRIMARIES The factors that influence vote choice in presidential primaries and caucuses are fairly well established. Perceived viability, candidate quality, and candidate strength are of the utmost importance. Voters want to support a candidate who has a realistic chance to win the nomination and the general
to shore up Latino support, which they feared was softening, and enable Latinos to have more influence in determining the party nominee. These changes to the primary election calendar were the catalyst for a larger Latino influence in the general election as many competitive Democratic contests continued to highlight the Latino vote as a key demographic.29 When the general election campaign season arrived, the record turnout in the primaries, in addition to their experience with Latino
American Voter by Angus Campbell and his colleagues (1960) to The American Voter Revisited by Michael Lewis-Beck and his team of researchers more recently (2008).13 As we detailed the 2008 election in Chapter 6, however, we demonstrated that traditional models of voting don’t work quite as well for understanding Latino voting patterns. Further, as the electorate continues to diversify, scholars need to begin to ask how vote-choice models can be improved to better explain minority vote choice. As
The vote-switching literature does allow individual preferences to vary across different offices and levels of government.8 The vote-switching behavior by the most liberal Latinos that is required, however, if the “harm-to-Democrats” theory is going to work is unlikely to occur in the same congressional district. On the other hand, there are three other paths to electoral influence that could tilt in the GOP’s direction. First, there is demonstrably a Latino population that is less predisposed